File 03 — Panic

Panic-to-Probability Converter

Turn a 2 a.m. fear into a number.

Name the fear, answer four questions about your prior, your sample size, and whether anything actually changed. It crosses out the catastrophe and rewrites it as a calmer reading of the evidence.

01 — Name the beliefWhat’s the catastrophic thought?

02 — Check the base rate

How often does the thing you’re afraid of actually happen to people in your situation?

Before today, was this within the range you’d already expect?

03 — Weigh the evidence

How much data is this fear actually based on?

Did something genuinely new and diagnostic happen?

04 — Update, don’t collapse

0/4

Name the fear, answer the four questions, and the panic gets corrected into a probability — with a reading of how much you should actually update.

What now?

01The argument behind itThe Volume Knob and the Wrong Dial4 min →02More on panicThe Denominatorthe tool →