File 04 — Essays
Longer arguments, held loosely.
One idea each, written by someone who has been wrong before and fully expects to be again.
Probability
Base rates, Bayes, expected value, regression to the mean. The math your gut skips.
- Your Brain Hates Base RatesYour gut reads one loud signal and skips the only number that matters — how common the thing was before today.5 min →
- Loud Is Not CommonThe news is a feed of the rare and the dramatic — not a map of what's actually likely. And the harms that hurt the most people are often the quietest.5 min →
Panic
Catastrophising, negativity bias, emotional evidence. Why a strong feeling is not a strong proof.
Judgment
Decisions under uncertainty. One bad day is not a trend. Small data drives you mad.
Beliefs
Updating, confirmation bias, motivated reasoning. Keep your convictions on a short leash.