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Notes on probability, panic & better guesses
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File 03Your Risk, in Micromorts

Your Risk, in Micromorts

Where the danger actually is.

Set your real life — how much you drive, fly, ride, your age — and watch where your risk truly comes from. A micromort is a 1-in-a-million chance of death; the mundane things you do constantly quietly outweigh the dramatic ones you fear. Every figure sourced.

Interactiveyour risk, in micromortsset your real life

A micromort is a 1-in-a-million chance of dying. Set your actual life below, and watch where your risk really comes from — almost never the dramatic thing you fear.

Your year, in acute risk

544 micromorts

≈ a 1 in 1,838 chance this year — about the same as 68 skydives.

Just being alive (everyday accidents)515
Cycling15
Driving10
Flying4

Most of it is just everyday life — much of it on the road and at home, where you spend your time. The shark, the plane crash, the terrorist? A rounding error.

Exposure

You spend ~90% of your time indoors (US EPA), and the home is where the most accidental deaths happen (US NSC). Small per-hour risk × enormous exposure = a big share of the total. Risk is probability times how often you're exposed.

Honest footnote

Micromorts count sudden, acute risk— accidents, not disease, which is what actually dominates real mortality (especially with age). Figures are averaged and rough; your real numbers depend on how, where and when. It's a sense of proportion, not a prophecy.