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File 03 — Probability

Your Risk, in Micromorts

Where the danger actually is.

Set your real life — how much you drive, fly, ride, your age — and watch where your risk truly comes from. A micromort is a 1-in-a-million chance of death; the mundane things you do constantly quietly outweigh the dramatic ones you fear. Every figure sourced.

Interactive — your risk, in micromortsset your real life

A micromort is a 1-in-a-million chance of dying. Set your actual life below, and watch where your risk really comes from — almost never the dramatic thing you fear.

Your year, in acute risk

544 micromorts

≈ a 1 in 1,838 chance this year — about the same as 68 skydives.

Just being alive (everyday accidents)515
Cycling15
Driving10
Flying4

Most of it is just everyday life — much of it on the road and at home, where you spend your time. The shark, the plane crash, the terrorist? A rounding error.

Exposure

You spend ~90% of your time indoors (US EPA), and the home is where the most accidental deaths happen (US NSC). Small per-hour risk × enormous exposure = a big share of the total. Risk is probability times how often you’re exposed.

Honest footnote

Micromorts count sudden, acute risk — accidents, not disease, which is what actually dominates real mortality (especially with age). Figures are averaged and rough; your real numbers depend on how, where and when. It’s a sense of proportion, not a prophecy.