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File 03Signal vs. Noise

Signal vs. Noise

One bad day, drawn out.

Generate noisy data around a perfectly flat reality and watch alarming dips appear out of nothing. The fewer days you look at, the wilder the story. More data, calmer story.

Interactivesignal vs. noisehit ‘new data’
same flat reality, fresh noise

We're crashing. one bad day.

The worst day fell to 50 — about 0 below average. But the average barely moved: 50, basically flat. The dip was noise, not a trend.

Slide down to a handful of days and the average lurches with every run. Slide up and it settles. More data, calmer story.