Set a starting belief, then add evidence and watch it slide — proportionally, never leaping straight to certain. Strong evidence on a low prior still only gets you to “likely.”
Interactive — the belief updaterset a prior, then add evidence
now you believe20%
prior
0% — impossiblecertain — 100%
Add a piece of evidence
You multiply the odds, you don't jump to certainty. Even strong evidence stacked on a low priorlands you at "likely," not "sure."